The killing of Bin Laden has been celebrated as a great strategic victory by the White House, European capitals and major media worldwide. The killing has been a formidable act of propaganda to improve the position of the U.S. military national public opinion and to serve as a warning to foreign adversaries.
Contrary to this huge advertising campaign and despite the symbolic value that may have the eyes of their executioners, there is evidence that death will otherwise modify the deteriorating political and military position U.S. in South Asia, Middle East, North Africa or elsewhere.
Similarly, in terms of weakening, let alone defeat, Al Qaeda, the assassination will have a minimal effect. Al Qaeda is a highly decentralized organization, a loose collection of groups distributed in the conflict zones, each with their own leaders, programs, tactics and strategies. Al Qaeda is not a centralized international organization that depends on a central command led by a single person. Bin Laden was an ideological symbol rather than an operational leader in charge of operations. His death will only way for a new leader and will have zero impact on the rest of the network of groups that are poorly linked calls itself Al Qaeda. Therefore, any of the actions and activities in the past will continue in the future.
* Bin Laden and the Afghan resistance.
The killing of Bin Laden will have an absolutely minimal impact Afghanistan, for the obvious reason that the main forces that make up the armed resistance are the Taliban and several other independent nationalist groups. The Taliban are totally independent of Al Qaeda in its origins, structure, leadership, tactics, strategy and social composition. Moreover, the Taliban are a mass organization with roots and supporters around the country. Has tens of thousands of well-trained Afghan fighters, has deeply infiltrated the government and the Afghan army and recently announced (01/05/2011) a major spring offensive. The Taliban are a force overwhelmingly national in composition, leadership and ideology, while Al Qaeda is international (Arabic) into its components and leadership. Can be tolerated or sometimes even have collaborated with Al Qaeda tactically, but in no time has been no evidence they received orders from bin Laden. The vast majority of casualties who have suffered U.S. and NATO in Afghanistan were inflicted by the Taliban. The main operational and support bases located in Pakistan are linked to the Taliban. In short, the death of Osama Bin Laden will have no impact on the correlation of forces in Afghanistan will have no impact on the Taliban's ability to develop a protracted war against the U.S. occupation and causing dozens of casualties each week.
* Bin Laden and the great Arab revolt.
From Tunisia Gulf states, the mass popular uprisings have toppled regimes or U.S. partners are about to do so. Al Qaeda had played a minor role, except perhaps among "rebels" Libyans. In Egypt and Tunisia, mass movements covering a wide range of secular students, unions, civic groups and moderate Islamic movements have dominated the lifts. Al Qaeda is a marginal factor and Bin Laden, a figure very marginal, if not outright rejected.
The killing of Bin Laden will have no impact on the growing anti-imperialist sentiment behind these mass movements. Some commentators even suggest that death will weaken the propaganda efforts of the White House to justify U.S. military operations under the pretext of counterterrorism operations.
The strong opposition to the U.S. in Iraq is made up of the Shiite majority, the minority Sunnis and former Baathists. The terrorist acts of Al Qaeda have played a secondary role and did not support the demands of the vast majority of Iraqis when they demand U.S. withdrawal. The main religious mass movements against the occupation are their own leaders, and community-based militias, and no one accepts the leadership of Al Qaeda or even collaboration. The U.S. withdrawal is a response to mass pressure from below, not the result of civilian deaths due to occasional suicide bomber from Al Qaeda. It is clear that U.S. withdrawal from Iraq will not be affected by the death of Bin Laden, nor the transition will be influenced by local supporters.
The Iranian Islamic regime has been a deadly enemy of al Qaeda suspects imprisoned membership and has collaborated with the U.S. at the beginning of the war in Afghanistan (2001-2003) in persecution of their followers. Both the secular political opposition and the religious were hostile to Al Qaeda.
As a result, Bin Laden had little formal influence, although it may have had a mass appeal as a symbol of armed resistance to the U.S., according to the principle that the enemy of our enemy is our friend.
The killing of Bin Laden will have no impact on Iran, which has its own icon - Khomeini - and his own brand of Islamic nationalism, and is much more engaged in supporting Syria , Hezbollah and Hamas . U.S. will not get no advantage in their efforts to undermine or destroy their opponents in Iran.
* The meaning of the assassination of bin Laden.
is clear that the assassination of Bin Laden has absolutely no strategic or tactical importance in the major theaters of war and political upheaval in the Arab world. The primary meaning of death is in the context of strategic military and political defeats suffered by the U.S., including most recently in Afghanistan.
The April 27, 2011, nine U.S. military officers of high rank were killed by an Afghan fighter pilot confidence in the Kabul airport facility with heavy security. Four majors, two captains and two lieutenant colonels were killed in the worst atrocity isolated Senior U.S. military officials committed in the wars of the XX and XXI centuries.
There are several facts that give this action a strategic importance. First, was carried out in a high security facility, suggesting that there is no place in Afghanistan safe from deadly armed attacks by the Taliban or the armed resistance. Second, all U.S. military, no matter how high their rank, are vulnerable to fatal attacks. Third, no Afghan army officer or soldier, formed by U.S. can be considered fair, even employees closer can turn their weapons against their mentors, and eventually they will.
If the U.S. can not protect its senior officers on site at the highest level of security, how can you claim to have secured any of the territory outside their bases, ie, cities and towns and cities. Two weeks earlier, with the cooperation of prison officials, nearly 500 jailed Taliban fighters and leaders escaped through a tunnel of 300 meters to a dozen trucks were waiting. Only two years ago, 900 prisoners also escaped. As a result, U.S. insisted on the appointment of employees subject to a stringent check on the posts of managers and directors of security and prisons, to no avail.
The overwhelming evidence shows that the U.S. war effort is failing in the creation of an effective puppet regime in Afghanistan. The Taliban being eroded, in a slow but sure, the American influence. Faced with these major strategic loss, as the surprising assassination of senior military officers, Obama had to mount a political show, a military success, the death of a Bin Laden unarmed, to lift the spirits of the public, military establishments and their supporters of NATO.
popular uprising against the U.S. puppet in North Africa and the Middle East is a political defeat, the rugged Iranian regime is a defeat, as are the efforts of Israel to achieve a regime change. Gaddafi even resistance is a defeat for those who believe in instant wins. So Obama and his acolytes in the media have to amplify the most isolated murder of a political leader of an association marginal terrorist-free, making the fact a global event, a real turning point of the conflict. When in reality, the losses and the losses pile up day by day, before, during and after the murder.
Taliban even blinked: their spring offensive continues and U.S. military officials are resisting any encounter with Afghan partners, and loyal they may seem. Moreover, Egypt rejects Israeli-American policy on the unity of Palestinians and unrest in the Gulf continues. The only stalemate, not victory, Washington may hold -including the assassination of Gaddafi grandchildren - is in Libya, in collaboration with Al Qaeda, the war continues in Benghazi.
Taken Rebellion.
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